San Lucas, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

112
FXUS66 KMTR 071056
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
356 AM PDT Mon Oct 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 239 AM PDT Mon Oct 7 2024

Warm again today, but temperatures are on the decline this week.
Excessive Heat Warnings have been downgraded to Heat Advisories
inland, and the Heat Advisory along the coast is no longer in
effect.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 239 AM PDT Mon Oct 7 2024

Temperatures across lower elevations are running a couple of
degrees warmer than this time yesterday morning. This may lead to
a slight increase in the temperature forecast for today. However,
the good news is that temps at higher elevations are running a few
degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. This is our hint that lower
level temps in the atmosphere are beginning to gradually cool,
which should lead us on our journey of ending this heat wave over
these next couple of days. 500 mb heights are expected to begin
falling today as a weak shortwave trough around a broader
circulation moves through the region. Temperatures today would
likely fall off more quickly this evening as onshore flow is
restored.

Moderate HeatRisk persists today across much of the region away
from the coastline, with some isolated areas of major in the
interior East Bay, Santa Cruz Mtns, North Bay Mtns, and Eastern
Santa Clara Hills. As such, and with the higher confidence of
deeper onshore flow this evening, all Excessive Heat Warnings have
been downgraded to Heat Advisories in effect until 11 PM today,
and the Heat Advisory along the coastline is no longer in effect.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM PDT Mon Oct 7 2024

The pattern is a little more interesting going through the rest of
this week. A deep upper low in the Gulf of Alaska is progged to
send several more vigorous shortwave troughs into the PNW with a
fairly robust moisture tap in tow. The parent upper low is progged
to dig southward along the West Coast in what looks like a fairly
typical wet-season weak cold front set up. There also seems to be
more alignment among ensemble guidance regarding the chance of
wetting rain and its timing. Once again, the chance is still low
given how far out the period is from current, and given that it`s
an early season event. However, with more members hopping on board
with the large-scale pattern shift, confidence is increasing that
we should message at least some chance of light rain Saturday for
the Bay Area and point northward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 354 AM PDT Mon Oct 7 2024

VFR through the TAF period. Expect light and variable winds
overnight through the early afternoon. Expect moderate to breezy
winds to build in the mid afternoon and lasting through the evening
and early night before winds reduce.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Winds stay light
through early Monday afternoon before breezy westerly winds arrive
for Monday afternoon. Expect gusts around 25 kts to last into the
night before reducing.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Expect light
and variable winds through the night with more moderate winds
arriving Monday afternoon. These winds will last into the evening
before light winds return after nightfall.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 239 AM PDT Mon Oct 7 2024

Breezy North and northwest winds are building onto the area.
These winds will result in hazardous conditions for smaller
crafter. Additionally, the winds will produce a steep fresh swell.
Breezy northerly flow will prevail through midweek.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ006-502>504-
     506-508-510-512>518-528.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
     Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
     Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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